Friday, May 22, 2009

Tracking the Reshuffle - Part One


Every draft has its own flavor.

Some are headlined by a can't-miss franchise changing superstar (LeBron, Yao, Duncan) or by a popular debate (Oden or Durant? Howard or Okafor?).

Sometimes, though, a draft doesn't acquire a theme or personality until years after the event. The 2001 draft wasn't one of the more anticipated, but became significant for having more All-Stars taken after pick #25 than in the lottery.

By all accounts, 2009 is not a particularly strong draft, nor is it really suited for capturing the public's attention. So I've decided to focus on what I believe will be most fun part of following this draft - the reshuffling of the deck.

Here's why I think this will be the draft where workouts will shake up the board more than any other.

1. I believe there is a trend developing away from raw athletic talent and objective measurements and towards productivity and basketball skills. A combination of development time and money constraints in combination with recent success of undersized and less explosive players marks the trend. Teams can get premium role players at bargain prices. This draft is chock full of these players.

2. GMs and Coaches want more team-oriented players. Adding that great potential talent without the character to match is out. Nobody can afford it. Teams want guys who will fit in. Every team has players they can't trade because nobody wants to deal with them. There are already too many obstacles when trying to improve the roster - nobody wants to risk adding more.

3. Mistakes can't be covered up. There is no money to sign that expensive free agent because your draft pick is a bust. You better be sure the guy you take can play. Nobody can afford to screw up. If there is a guy who is now projected to go in the second round and he shows in your workout he can do what you need, you are taking him in the first and not looking back.

4. I think there is less difference between the 15th and 40th best players in this draft than in any I can remember. I don't see a lot of media or fan backlash for a GM that takes - say - Toney Douglas over Nick Calathes or Tyler Smith over Austin Daye.

Any thoughts on 2009 being the "Year of the Reshuffle"? Comment below!

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